“While focus remains firmly fixed on Covid-19, a second health crisis is quietly emerging in Britain. Since the beginning of July, there have been thousands of excess deaths which were not caused by coronavirus.”
“According to health experts, this is highly unusual for the summer. Although excess deaths are expected during the winter months, when cold weather and seasonal infections combine to place pressure on the NHS, summer generally sees a lull.”
“According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) since July 2, there have been 9,619 excess deaths in England and Wales, of which 48 per cent (4,635) were not caused by Covid-19.”
“Data from Public Health England (PHE) shows that during that period there were 2,103 extra death registrations with ischemic heart disease, 1,552 with heart failure, as well as an extra 760 deaths with cerebrovascular diseases such as stroke and aneurysm and 3,915 with other circulatory diseases.”
“Acute and chronic respiratory infections were also up with 3,416 more mentions on death certificates than expected since the start of July, while there have been 1,234 extra urinary system disease deaths, 324 with cirrhosis and liver disease and 1,905 with diabetes.”
“Alarmingly, many of these conditions saw the biggest drops in diagnosis in 2020, as the NHS struggled to cope with the pandemic.”
“A report released last week by the Government detailing the direct and indirect health impacts of the pandemic reported that there were an estimated 23 million fewer GP consultations – both in-person and online, in 2020 compared with 2019.”
“Since the start of the pandemic, charities and health bodies have warned that people were struggling to access care as the NHS switched to fighting the pandemic.”
“Dr Charlotte Summers, an intensive care consultant from Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge, told a Royal Society of Medicine (RSM) event this week that patients were arriving at A&E with serious conditions that had worsened during the pandemic.”
““We’ve got a massive elective backlog….and we’re potentially likely to have flu at increased levels this year because immunity to influenza will have waned”, she said.
““It feels like winter is already here, rather than it is coming. It’s worse this year than I think I remember at any point in the last 20 years.””
“Data from NHS England suggests that there are around five million people currently waiting to begin treatment, and the Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned that the figure could rise to 13 million.”
“The country is also suffering because of a lack of immunity. While lockdowns, social distancing, isolation and masks kept Covid-19 down, it also prevented other diseases from circulating.”
We “are beginning to experience a rise in infectious diseases that could hit us harder than ever this winter as we have less protection than normal.”
“The danger is that these added pressures on the NHS will force the Government into locking down the country again this winter, mandating masks and work from home rules.”
“If it does, we could end up in a perpetuating state of low-immunity in winter that it will be difficult to escape from. The Covid-19 response may have inadvertently created an ongoing health crisis from which there is no way back.”
Read more: Analysis: Thousands more than usual dying – and not from Covid (archived)
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