[Kathimerini, The National Interest]
“Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has grown increasingly aggressive. Whereas Turkey once occupied only Cyprus, the Turkish dictator has dispatched Turkish forces to both Syria and Iraq where they occupy and ethnically cleanse districts, threatened Greek islands, participated in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and even claimed portions of Bulgaria. While Erdogan has publicly repudiated the Lausanne Treaty for several years, he has recently taken his rejection of international norms even further. Speaking at the presidential palace library on May 19 to an assembled crowd of young Turks, Erdogan declared, “Turkey is not 780 thousand square kilometers for us; Turkey is everywhere for us.” He continued to announce that, on July 20, he would visit northern Cyprus. “The messages we will give from Northern Cyprus concern not only the island but the whole world,” he warned.”
“Turkey’s establishment of a drone base on Cyprus makes it imperative for the United States to end the arms embargo on Cyprus for two reasons. The first is military: former secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s partial lifting in September 2020 was more symbolic than real. Cyprus received little more than bulletproof vests because of the resistance of career diplomats and the State Department’s own Turkey lobby. Erdogan’s stationing of Bayraktar-TB2 attack drones mandates transfer to Cyprus of technology to counter drones. This might include Patriot missile batteries such as the United States has provided both Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past. The Pentagon should also fast-track jamming devices capable of blinding if not bringing down Turkish drones. Indeed, the Biden administration should go even further. Cyprus at present has no air force of its own and only a small volunteer force. To rectify this, the United States should make it a strategic priority to build up the nascent Cypriot drone capability to the point where Cyprus has a qualitative military edge over Turkey.”
“The second reason to lift the embargo is diplomatic. No longer should Brussels or Washington expect Nicosia to offer concessions to Ankara. Doing so only rewards Turkish aggression. The only effective way to convince Erdogan to stop shredding the status quo is to demonstrate that every time he acts unilaterally, Turkey’s strategic position will decline.”
“Turkey invaded the island in 1974, and less than a decade later established a puppet state—the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus—in the occupied zone. While the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) has now served on the island for more than a half-century, neither the UN nor various Western initiatives have resolved the key issue: Turkey’s continued occupation. While some Turkish apologists justify Turkey’s presence as protection to defend against supposed Greek ethnic cleansing, this ignores the fact that the Greek regime whose efforts to annex Cyprus sparked Turkey’s actions fell within days of the Turkish invasion rendering null any reason for Turkish troops to be on the island. The international community, meanwhile, continues to recognize the entirety of Cypriot waters to belong to the Greek Cypriot government.”
“While Erdoğan is prone to bluster, his current moves on Cyprus are different. On December 16, 2019, Ismail Demir, the head of Turkey’s Defence Industry Directorate, announced that Turkey had flown its first drones from the western Turkish province of Muğla to Lefkoniko Airport—or Geçitkale Air Base, as Turkey has restyled it. Turkey has continued to transform Lefkoniko into a drone base.”
“Initially, Turkey used its northern Cypriot drone base to conduct surveillance as its seismic exploration vessels explored for gas and oil in Cypriot waters but, as it has upgraded Lefkoniko, it has moved many attack drones such as the Bayraktar-TB2 onto the base. Turkey has previously used the Bayraktar-TB2 against Kurdish targets in Iraq and against forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar, head of the Egypt-backed, anti-Muslim Brotherhood force in Libya.”
“While previous versions of the drone only had an effective reach of 100 miles, upgrades to the guidance and operational systems greatly expand the drones’ range, especially given its 27-hour endurance. While Erdoğan has long railed against Israel and Egypt and sought to gain inroads into Lebanon and Gaza, his new drone base in occupied Cyprus now places each into his range. Turkey has already upended regional security by laying claim to Greek islands and infringing on the waters of not only Cyprus, but also Greece and the exclusive economic zone of Israel. The United States, European Union, Israel, and the moderate Arab bloc should expect Turkish aggression and violations soon to become much worse.”
“More than eight years ago, I warned that Turkey was seeking to jumpstart its own arms export industry at the same time the Obama administration was transferring American drones to Turkey. Many Turkish drones—including in all likelihood the Bayraktar-TB2—include either technology reverse-engineered from American drones or imported American components. Congress must act to prevent the further sale or transfer of any American computer or military components to Turkey. The impact of Turkey’s UAV actions are as dangerous to NATO as its use of the Russian S-400.”
“Kind words will not bring peace to the Eastern Mediterranean; the only strategy that will work in the region is to demonstrate to Erdoğan that Turkey has far more to lose from scrapping the status quo than it has to gain.”
Read more: Time to end the Cyprus arms embargo and Turkey’s New Drone Base Is a Problem
Related: Turkey’s new drone base and the dangers it poses to Cyprus and the region (podcast)
2021-week23
