[Future Directions International]
“The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, originating in Turkey and cutting through both Syria and Iraq, have experienced drastic reductions in water flows in recent years due, primarily, to Turkish hydro-engineering and regional droughts. This is of significance for Iraq, which has historically prospered because of the rich agricultural harvests based on water supplies sourced from these waterways. Turkish initiatives aimed at massively expanding their exploitation of the water from the two rivers have coincided with severe droughts in the region and resulted in a burgeoning water-shortage crisis in Iraq. This problem threatens an environmental catastrophe. Political negotiations between the three countries have so far fallen short of reaching agreement on providing the necessary increases in flow rates to address the deteriorating situation in Iraq.”
“Under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin was effectively managed. After the collapse of the empire in 1922, and the establishment of the independent states of Turkey, Syria and Iraq, these rivers became a shared resource with the potential for conflict. Iraq has historically been the predominant user of water from these rivers and a large network of Karez, or man-made underground irrigation channels, has existed there for centuries. This was not a problem in the early and mid-twentieth century, as Turkey and Syria did not develop expansive systems using dams and irrigation. When this began to change in the 1970s, however, Iraq’s claim to the bulk of the basin’s water resources was suddenly under threat.”
“The world’s population is increasing rapidly and the Middle East has some of the fastest rates of population growth. With Iraq and Syria experiencing a fourfold increase and Turkey doubling its population since the 1960s, it is clear that all three countries have experienced rapid growth in demand for the resources used by their people. Turkey has taken bold action on this front, with its decision in 1975 to undertake the Southeast Anatolia Project”.
“(Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi, GAP); a massive dam-building scheme that envisages the construction of 22 dams and 19 hydropower plants across the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The scheme requires hundreds of kilometres of irrigation canals and is expected to cover 75,000km² – almost 10 per cent of the surface area of Turkey. GAP is approximately 60 per cent complete and much of Turkey’s increase in water use has already occurred, creating significant reductions in the flow of water in downstream areas of both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. One projection states that, when completed, GAP will reduce the flow of water into Iraq by approximately 80 per cent and into Syria by about 40 per cent. This has spelt bad news for Iraq, as their historic levels of usage have been based on being the predominant user of these water resources. With Syria also beginning to construct dams along the Euphrates River, declining flows into Iraq have reached a crisis point.”
“Potential for International Conflict”
“Turkey’s decision to begin the construction of GAP drew immediate criticism from both Syria and Iraq. Both countries knew the extent of this project meant they would inevitably experience reduced availability of water resources and this resulted in significantly heightened tensions in the region. The completion of Syria’s Tabqa Dam in 1975 brought Syria and Iraq to the brink of war, as this coincided with the start of GAP and with a drought in Iraq that created serious shortages of water resources. In 1990, Turkey mobilised its forces when it cut the Euphrates to fill the Atatürk Dam, temporarily reducing water flow into Syria and Iraq by 75 per cent. Iraq threatened to blow up the dam, which led Turkey to threaten to cut off the water flow to Syria and Iraq completely.”
“Use of Water as Political Leverage”
“In 1987, Turkey and Syria came to an agreement over water sharing. This ensured that Turkey would maintain a flow rate of 500 cubic metres a second where the Euphrates River passes into Syria. In return, Turkey asked for Syria’s cooperation on the issue of Kurdish rebels residing in Syrian territory. This has created a dangerous precedent, as water scarcity is set to increase and the political leverage wielded by Turkey will consequently increase in turn. Ongoing struggles between the Turkish government and Kurdish separatists may become an international conflict in the future, if Turkey manipulates either Syria or Iraq (or both) into dealing with Kurdish populations within their borders in return for guaranteed supplies of water.”
“International Negotiations and Legal Framework”
“Despite numerous attempted negotiations between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, there has been little progress. Agreements between these countries date back to 1926, with The Good Neighbourliness Agreement between Turkey and French Syria, outlining Syria’s water rights, and the Treaty of Friendship and Neighbourly Relations between Turkey and Iraq, under which Turkey agreed not to change the flow of the Euphrates or construct waterworks without first consulting Iraq. This treaty has been mostly ignored by Turkey in recent decades and is perceived by the Turkish government as irrelevant in today’s economic and political context.”
“There was not another significant agreement formed until 1987 when Turkey agreed to maintain a minimum flow of 500 cubic metres a second into Syria. Iraq and Syria also established a bilateral water sharing agreement in 1990, but there is still no significant bilateral agreement between Iraq and Turkey, which is the source of much of the tension regarding water sharing in the region.”
“The United Nations Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses is the only truly global framework for dealing with disputes over waterways crossing international borders. The convention requires that a state sharing an international watercourse with other states should use that part of the watercourse in its territory in a manner that is equitable and reasonable vis-á-vis the other states sharing it. It also requires that states take all the appropriate measures to avoid causing significant harm to other states sharing an international watercourse. While these objectives are somewhat vague and potentially contradictory, they at least offer a framework for negotiation. It is unfortunately a framework that has not been accepted by the global community, as the required number of signatories for the implementation of the convention has not been reached. Because of its potential to create international moral and diplomatic pressure on specific nations, however, acceptance and ratification of this convention remains an important goal. Both Syria and Iraq are signatories, but Turkey remains a notable absentee from the convention. Not only this, but they were one of three nations to actually vote against the resolution to adopt the convention, along with China and Burundi.”
Read more: Water-Shortage Crisis Escalating in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin
2021-week41